Noon tomorrow the 119th Congress convenes. As of tonight, everyone is uncertain if a Speaker of the House will be elected. This evening POLITICO “Inside Congress” email tells us how it will work.
WHAT TO EXPECT ON THE SPEAKER’S RACE
We have a hauntingly recent example for what happens if Johnson doesn’t clinch the speakership on the first vote.
Shortly after the floor opens at noon, the clerk will call the roll for each member, alphabetically, to state who they want to be speaker. If any Republicans vote for someone besides Johnson in the first half of the alphabet (before Massie), Johnson doesn’t have the votes.
Run the roll call: The clerk can repeat the roll call voice vote until someone gets a majority. We’ll know pretty quick. In 2023 there were three ballots on Jan. 3 and McCarthy failed to get the majority on all of them. (It eventually went to 15 ballots over multiple days.)
No recess: If Republicans need to regroup before starting a new ballot, maybe hash out a compromise with Johnson or do some horse-trading behind closed doors, there is just one option on the table: adjourn the House. Without House rules in place, the chamber cannot recess subject to the call of the chair. They’d need to adjourn, with a certain day and time for reconvening specified.
It’s hard to try and win over votes during a roll call with the C-SPAN cameras trained on lawmakers. So Republicans may opt — as they did last time — to adjourn rather than drag out more hours of disarray on live TV.
Cue up a Saturday session: With snow in the forecast, reconciliation meetings planned and the pressure to get the House functional to certify the 2024 election on Monday, many members may already be planning to stay in D.C. for the weekend. Expect Johnson’s critics and allies to stream in and out of closed-door meetings as they try to get enough votes.
Clerk calls the shots: The Clerk of the House has the authority to make rulings during the speaker election, since there’s no speaker, though the House can appeal and overturn clerk rulings.
What hangs in the balance: Until a speaker is selected, the members of the 119th Congress won’t be sworn in and the House will be essentially frozen. And what if it drags on past Jan. 6 — or even Jan. 20? We’ve got a guide.
(Our thanks to -Katherine Tully-McManus)