(Editor’s note: Jim VandeHei & Mike Allen of Axios periodically write a column “Behind the Curtain. This morning’s foretells Trump’s future.)
President Trump feels and acts invincible: He acts on whims, however he pleases, precedent and restraints be damned.
But Trump’s vincibility is being exposed. Courts restrain him more. GOP candidates criticize him more. The public turns on him more.
Why it matters: Time, power and support wane for all lame-duck presidents. But it’s new for Trump and will only grow more true and more torturous, assuming Democrats win Capitol power in the midterms, 43 days from now.
This is what the beginning of the end looks like, which is what scares Trump advisers and confidants most. Trump often retreats to his worst impulses when he feels most powerless.
o That helps explain Trump’s decision to ban three news organizations from the White House for the sin of reporting what he doesn’t like.
o Trump lashed out at the outlets (which vow court challenges) after a weeklong string of setbacks: The Fed raised interest rates against his will … The Supreme Court rejected his plan to restrict mail-in ballots … A federal judge blocked him from putting his name on the Kennedy Center … A Florida Republican, Rep. María Elvira Salazar, bought a campaign ad saying ICE has gone too far and Hispanic voters “feel betrayed” … A gallon of gas was up $1.24 from a year ago … Diesel set a record.
o How Trump’s brain works: The skeleton key for unlocking Trump’s mind is understanding that he thinks constantly about exercising power, and believes power is a zero-sum game — a winner and a loser.
o Exercising power is the explanation for banning the media, for unpopular tariffs, for bombing Iran, for demolishing the East Wing, for obsessing about a new ballroom and gilding D.C.
Trump announced at 7:30 a.m. on Sunday that he wants his planned golden arch to have G.I. Joe-style capabilities “to house, store, and have the rapid ability to use large numbers of drones, plus Snipers, on both the roof and plaza areas, and additionally have and hold large quantities of sniper ammunition in storage.” There’s a method to it all: If the Arc de Trump is for national security, the courts and Congress will have a tougher time reining in the executive.
Later Sunday morning, the president of the United States decided to engagement-farm on Truth Social by boosting a poll asking whether people think AI should be rebranded as either “Superior Intelligence” or “Extreme Intelligence.” (You know he’s gonna pick “superior,” which of course will do nothing to calm Americans creeped out by the technology.)
Expect more of this. Trump will act out to exert what control he can because he’s lost the political argument — if not the military one — as his Iran war constantly puts the lie to his claims, raises fuel costs and, in tandem with his unpopular tariffs, saddles voters with inflation.
o The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates can be read as a lack of confidence in the president’s economic agenda. The decision could raise mortgage rates, already at a 19-month high.
o Behind the scenes: Trump advisers and confidants describe him as generally in a good mood. But some privately confess he can get too cranky too quickly sometimes and that he’s showing his 80 years on Earth.
o Senior administration officials, steeled by seasoned vets accustomed to the wild ride on the Trump crazy train, are officially acting as if it’s just another day on the tracks.
o To them, Trump should ban more news organizations that agitate him; the Fed rate hikes aren’t his fault (it’s somehow Joe Biden’s); the president will exert power as he sees fit; and his ballroom obsession is charming.
o “No Panicans Allowed,” one official, using the Trumpworld version of Democrats’ “bedwetters,” told Axios’ Marc Caputo.
Between the lines: House Dems can practically taste the majority, and they’re showing signs of just how much they’ll investigate Trump’s administration and family.
o As is customary, staff is leaving as Trump approaches his final midterm. It’s unclear who’ll come after and how experienced they’ll be.
o You can bank on this: Trump will issue blanket pardons to those who stay and those he perceives as loyal.
Podcaster Katie Miller, a Trump 1.0 vet and wife of White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, wrote Saturday on X in response to a post about looming pardons: “After the first Trump administration, my family spent money we did not have on lawyers because of multiple partisan Democrat led investigations into President Trump.”
o “I watched as many of my friends also had no idea how to pay expensive legal bills because they simply served their country,” she added. “You can’t convince me Democrats won’t do this again.”
As the first president who was impeached twice, Trump began war-gaming last year for an impeachment fight in 2027-28. As long as the GOP maintains Senate control or as long as there isn’t the threat of removal by a two-thirds Senate vote after an impeachment, Trump is signaling he’s ready for battle.
o “The president can count to 67,” a longtime adviser told Caputo. “And he has bigger balls than anyone in D.C.”
The bottom line: Yes, Trump commands loyalty or at least blind silence from most elected Republicans. They fear him. But with each passing day, Democrats, the courts, critics — even some congressional Republicans — feel more capable of restraining Trump and are starting to think about what comes after him.
Axios’ Marc Caputo contributed reporting.