(Editor’s note: Robert Harris who spends time analyzing polls, provided the post below. Mr. Harris retirement hobby is observing political trends. He has a keen eye and understanding of the political world…even today’s.)
Trump is lost. And, Republicans are losing. The polls show us almost daily what the Americans think about the Trump Presidency.
There are five months before the elections. Voters make up their mind in the spring, early summer in mid-term election years — which means they have already made up their minds or are right now choosing a side.
Since 1946, the President’s party in Congress has lost seats in all but two mid-term elections. Republicans lost 40 US House seats in President Trump’s first term (2018). The current Republican majority in the House is 220-215 which translates to Democrats needing to pick up only 3 seats to change the majority.
On June 1, Trump’s polling average from Real Clear Politics is 39.9 to 57.4. According to the New York Times, Trump’s approval-disapproval is 38-58. And, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin calls the President’s approval at 37.6 to 58.5. In all three, Trump’s job performance is approved by just a tick or two under 40 percent and his disapproval is 2 points under 60 percent (58).
According to Real Clear Politics his approval on his handling of the economy is 35.0 to 60.8 (-25.8%); and, Trump’s approval on combating inflation is 28.3 to 67.8 (-39.6%). His approval on Iran is 37.8 to 57.5 (-19.7%).
His disapproval is:
Overall Job Performance (57.4)
Handling of Economy (60.5)
Handling of Inflation (67.4)
Handling of Iran War (57.0)
Republicans trail Democrats by nearly 8 points (-7.6%). According to Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball that number translates to at least a 23-28 seat loss for Republican and 8 points would take it to 30.
We have a grossly unpopular leader, even in best of polls from the most partisan polling operations. That leader is the leader of the subservient Republican controlled majorities in the House and Senate.
Let’s have the election.