There have been some early observations in the national media about the 2012 presidential race. If you have not been keeping up you may find this helpful. Click and read.
Obama could survive some bumps on the road to the 2012 reelection
Who Can Win the GOP nomination?
Mitt Romney edges closer to an announcement
A clip from POLITICO newsletter
FIRST LOOK – ASK NOT FOR WHOM THE PENDULUM SWINGS: The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has rolled out a new volume of essential analysis on the 2010 campaign – and its implications for the 2012 presidential election. Authored by Professor Larry Sabato and a cast of dozens, the book may leave Republicans asking themselves at least one big question: What if this is as good as it gets? From “Pendulum Swing”: “The Democratic near-landslide of 2008 could never have immediately foretold the thumping Democrats took in 2010. Nor does the Republican near-landslide of 2010 tell us very much about the outcome in 2012. Young people went down from 18% of the electorate in 2008 to just 12% in 2010. Blacks from 13% to 9%. Hispanics: 11% to 8%. 2012 will not look like 2010. … Analysts keep talking about the shift among Independents. It was less a shift than a different group of Independents showing up. Compared to 2008, this group of Independents was much older and whiter. … 2010 was as Republican an electorate as ever shows up, in midterms or in presidential elections.”
SABATO’S BEST NEWS FOR THE GOP: “With over 6,115 state legislative seats on the ballot, over 720 went to the GOP, counting post-election party switches. Compare this to 1994, another great GOP year when they picked up only 472, or Democrats’ great Watergate year of 1974, when they netted 628.” AND FOR THE DEMS: “Net House seat gain for GOP in all Pacific states was zero (+1 in WA, -1 in HI). A growing Hispanic population and the overall deepening Democratic Party affiliation in the Pacific States explain it. … The final turnout for 2010 was 40.8%. Compare that to 2008’s 61.6%. 2012 will be much more like 2008 than 2010.”
MORE – TONER’S CRYSTAL BALL – Former FEC Chairman Michael Toner pens a chapter on campaign money, arguing that President Obama is likely to have an overwhelming financial advantage in 2012: “It isn’t just that he may raise $1 billion or more. It’s that without credible primary opponents, as is likely, Obama will likely be able to roll over hundreds of millions of dollars of excess primary funds directly into his general election campaign … It will be very difficult for any Republican to compete with Obama without raising a minimum of a half billion dollars. Given President Obama’s decision in 2008 to turn down public funds not only for the primaries but for the general election as well – and the near certainty that Obama will do so again in 2012 – all of the top-tier Republican candidates will likely have to do so as well.” Amazon.com page for “Pendulum Swing” here: http://amzn.to/hdzHpZ