Gallup Finds Times Changing

Earlier I wrote about these not being normal times.  Our “moving vacation”, as I like to call it, has ended.  Today I spent catching up on my political newsletters.  I found an item on POLITICO from a Gallup weekly tracking report.  It reports an historic midterm advantage for Republicans.

Only in recent years have West Virginians voted for Republicans when it comes to national races.  If somehow those seeking to enter the United States Congress in November can turn their race into a national one the Gallup outlook may be meaningful here.


BIGGEST GOP MIDTERM ADVANTAGE SINCE 1942 —, “GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot: Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting,” by Frank Newport: “Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 … The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. … Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major ‘wave’ election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.”


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