THE WINNER IS…anyone’s guess…depends upon the turnout plan of the candidates…both parties…with no interest on Main Street in the Governor’s primary…the party faithful will decide…even if TV ads increase…then only those negative ones will likely impact…the Democrat race with 19% undecided..
Despite TV ads…of Perdue & Thompson their poll numbers changed little…from November Mark Blankenship poll…showing BOTH at 7% …the recent Tomblin survey had Perdue at 13% & Thompson 8%…SOS Tennant [also a candidate] has a poll with Perdue at 14%…Thompson at 5%.
Candidate spokespersons…after the Tomblin poll…called it a two person race…with Tomblin named along with their candidate…but polls results…the Blankenship [November]…Tennant [March 10-15]…Tomblin [March 28-31]…show the two person race is TOMBLIN & TENNANT.
HERE ARE THE NUMBERS…Blankenship’s early [Nov.] survey…Tomblin 24% [he had just assumed the office]…Tennant 19%…moving to March…Tennant’s poll of 600 likely voters showed Tomblin 31% and Tennant at 27%…two weeks later Tomblin released a survey where he [Tomblin] was at 36%…and Tennant at 22%…all the recent surveys show 19% of UNDECIDED…this RACE IS FAR FROM OVER.
Neither Tennant nor Tomblin…have been up on TV…Tomblin has the funds…Tennant has the enthusiasm…Perdue is strong with party faithful…Thompson has the teachers…Kessler seldom a mention.
REPUBLICAN candidates…seem to be working hard…but without much public note…Ireland and Maloney issued competing news release about the Chamber endorsement…not likely to have much impact…remember Ireland got an early endorsement from the FARM BUREAU.
Unless you are attending GOP county LINCOLN DAY DINNERS…it is hard to track that race…no polling has been done…or at least released… like the Democrats…hoping to declare yourself in the lead.
Republican candidates’ news releases…and newsletters have hit the in box…but not the newspapers…one can assume the party faithful are focused on the race…SORSAIA, FAIRCLOTH and CARMICHAEL making the numerous dinners…not sure what happens after dinner…no public polls.
“ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN PRIMARY”…it will still come down to who WORKS 24/7…touching base with known primary voters…TV may still play a role…but only if it gets negative…or as a name building strategy…Governor Tomblin & Secretary of State Tennant…based on the polls don’t need that…they need strong ground game efforts…FOR THE REPUBLICANS…with only two candidates…Ireland & Barnes…having been active in party circles…it will likely take a well placed TV buy…to become known…with the right message…added to a strategic turnout program.