Late October 25th in a Political Tidbits posting on www.phillipsbillboard.com we wrote Manchin was running like a Republican. It was suggested in the tightening election “what about a party change Joe.”
FoxNews.com offers early intel that “GOP Sweetens Its Offer to Manchin.” Don’t expect such a move by Governor Manchin but its fun to know what’s going on behind the scenes.
One can only hope.
Karl Rove, The Architect, has guided Republicans to office from the courthouse to the White House. His weekly column in The Wall Street Journal offers an overview of this week’s midterm election. Then numbers are fascinating. More importantly he tells his follow Republicans it’s “Time To Deliver.”
If your not a Washington Post Sunday reader this piece may be of interest as November 2nd and the 2012 election approaches.
Earlier I wrote about these not being normal times. Our “moving vacation”, as I like to call it, has ended. Today I spent catching up on my political newsletters. I found an item on POLITICO from a Gallup weekly tracking report. It reports an historic midterm advantage for Republicans.
Only in recent years have West Virginians voted for Republicans when it comes to national races. If somehow those seeking to enter the United States Congress in November can turn their race into a national one the Gallup outlook may be meaningful here.
—BIGGEST GOP MIDTERM ADVANTAGE SINCE 1942 — Gallup.com, “GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot: Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting,” by Frank Newport: “Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 … The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. … Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major ‘wave’ election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.”
Polls are where you look to see how a candidate is doing. Inside political observers “follow the money”. Below is my Saturday morning reading. You decided how it looks at this point in the mid-term election.
**************************
“RNC has just $5m for final push,” by Jonathan Martin: The RNC “has just over $5 million in the bank for the final stretch of the 2010 mid-term election campaign, according to an unannounced filing with the FEC disclosed Friday night. The report also indicates that the national party headed by embattled chairman Michael Steele is carrying just over $2 million in debt. … It indicated that the committee brought in slightly more than $5.5 million in July – less than half of what the DNC raised – while spending $11 million. The RNC’s money woes have many party leaders and operatives deeply worried about whether the GOP will be able to take full advantage of an otherwise promising election cycle. Of most concern are get-out- the-vote activities that are typically funded by the national committee. … The DNC released its July fundraising numbers earlier this week, reporting that it had just over $10.8 million on hand while also carrying $3.5 million in debt.
“The RNC’s struggles come as other Republican committees show signs of momentum. The National Republican Congressional Committee outraised its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $8.5 million to $6.2 million in July. The DCCC, however, has just under $36 million in the bank while the NRCC has about $22 million. The National Republican Senatorial Committee appears to be closing the cash gap on its Democratic counterpart, raising $4.2 million to the Democratic committee’s $4.4 million in July. These committees each have more than $20 million heading into the fall. Meantime, the Republican Governors Association has about $40 million to spend on the fall elections, significantly more than its Democratic counterpart. http://bit.ly/d0WQNj
OUTSIDE MONEY – The dogged KENNETH P. VOGEL reports that American Crossroads “pulled in more than $2 million from last month, and this week spent $454,000 on ads supporting Republican Rob Portman’s Ohio Senate campaign … American Crossroads accepted $1 million each from the trust of former Univision chairman Jerry Perenchio and from an agricultural interest controlled in part by Texas billionaire Harold Simmons. But the FEC reports reveal only half of the effort being waged under the American Crossroads umbrella, which includes the Crossroads PAC and … American Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, or GPS … Together they have raised $17.6 million … Crossroads GPS announced Friday that it had launched more than $2 million worth of so-called issue ads criticizing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Missouri democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan during their campaigns. … The Crossroads groups, part of a vast effort by political and interest groups on the right to offset the overall financial advantage held by Democrats and their allies, have set an ambitious fundraising goal of between $50 and $60 million.” http://bit.ly/c5PD8N
The primary in four states earlier in the week signaled a big win for Washington outsiders. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll does not paint an optimistic picture of voter mood. It leads one to believe the country is in for an unpredictable midterm election in November.
West Virginians normally turn to the predictable when electing their representatives to Congress. A sign state voters are turning unpredictable occurred in the May primary when incumbent Rep. Allan Mollohan was turned out.
Wonder if the special primary August 28th will provide an insight that West Virginians are in a grim mood and turning grimmer as found in the new poll?
The morning after Pennsylvania 12 it was suggested here in Political Tidbits that Republicans needed a new approach. This was the one race on Tuesday pitting a Republican and Democrat against each other. The GOP fell short.
In a postmortem memo prepared by a National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) pollster he joined some pundits who say the high-profile Senate primary brought forth a surge of Democratic voters. That may be.
This setback may be a blessing. Expectations have been too high for a GOP takeover of the House in November. It’s time for the reassessment that appears underway by the NRCC. Any review should remember what House Speaker Tip O’Neill said, “all politics is local”.
Lessons from the rout in Pennsylvania 12 were addressed in a WSJ “Review & Outlook” commentary. They addressed a greater concern that being if Republican National Chairman Michael Steele is up to the job. It’s worth a read.