Posts Tagged ‘2010 election’

Gallup Finds Times Changing

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

Earlier I wrote about these not being normal times.  Our “moving vacation”, as I like to call it, has ended.  Today I spent catching up on my political newsletters.  I found an item on POLITICO from a Gallup weekly tracking report.  It reports an historic midterm advantage for Republicans.

Only in recent years have West Virginians voted for Republicans when it comes to national races.  If somehow those seeking to enter the United States Congress in November can turn their race into a national one the Gallup outlook may be meaningful here.

 

BIGGEST GOP MIDTERM ADVANTAGE SINCE 1942 — Gallup.com, “GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot: Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting,” by Frank Newport: “Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 … The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. … Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major ‘wave’ election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.”

Wholesale Change Coming?

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

The primary in four states earlier in the week signaled a big win for Washington outsiders.  A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll does not paint an optimistic picture of voter mood.  It leads one to believe the country is in for an unpredictable midterm election in November. 

West Virginians normally turn to the predictable when electing their representatives to Congress.  A sign state voters are turning unpredictable occurred in the May primary when incumbent Rep. Allan Mollohan was turned out. 

Wonder if the special primary August 28th will provide an insight that West Virginians are in a grim mood and turning grimmer as found in the new poll?

Political Tidbits…From Coal’s Annual Gathering

Sunday, August 8th, 2010

WV Coal Association annual meeting was the venue for politics this weekend….. Friday’s informal gathering found the leading characters on the mountain…..the only U. S. Senate candidate on hand was Governor Manchin…..he and First Lady Gayle were a hit…..as a team and on the dance floor.

Congressional candidates were everywhere…..Spike Maynard of the 3rd District was the first to arrive…..he is a ‘friend of coal’ and found much praise for entering the battle…..the current 3rd District Rep Nick Joe Rahall keep a low profile…..until the band ask why he was not dancing?

The likely new WV Governor Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin came early and left late…..everyone wanted his ear…..House Speaker Richard Thompson who is eyeing the Governor’s seat was in campaign mode.  They appeared on an 8AM panel Saturday…..unlike Washington it was civil.

Coal members lined up to greet Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito & Charlie…..she has been speaking out for WV’s coal economy in Congress…..the majority opinion was Capito did the right thing…..not seeking the short term Senate seat…..a future race in 2012 still in question.

Not to be out done…..First District candidates were working as well…..GOP candidate David McKinley was at the dinner…..Senator Mike Oliverio who in May killed the giant Rep. Mollohan…..spent the entire day Saturday with coal leaders.

Back to the Legislative panel…..Delegate Thomas Campbell (D-Greenbrier) and Senator Walt Helmick (D-Pocahontas)  joined Tomblin and Thompson to discuss state legislative issues.  An informative session….. with these heavy hitters.

Coal leaders were pleased Delegate Kevin Craig (D-Cabell) who serves on the House Energy Committee took the time to attend……the new GOP Chair Mike Stuart arrived Saturday night.

Gary White was confirmed as the association’s Chairman…..there is no one more respected by state leaders in and out of government…..his ability will serve the coal industry well…..as they confront huge issues at home and in Washington.

Republicans Are Ready for Capito

Monday, July 19th, 2010

WV Republicans in the Legislature have scored a victory for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.  The new law provides an opportunity for Capito to run for the Senate seat and for re-election to her House seat if she wants.

Now we know the real hold up in passing the legislation Governor Manchin proposed.

National Review reported Friday Rep. Capito was spending the weekend working on plans for a run if the opportunity presented itself.  The opportunity is here.  She has until Friday to announce her intentions.  Republican sources said today Capito is on the edge of making the race.

It has always been thought there was a close relationship between the Manchin and Moore families.  Capito’s father former Governor Moore represented West Virginia’s first congressional district for years in which the Manchin family resided.  It has been said there would never be a race between Moore Capito and a Manchin. 

That idea was put aside last week when Capito said “that is a myth.”

Should this race materialize it will make political history.  Capito has been a strong voice for West Virginia in Congress and Governor Manchin has brought positive attention to the State.

It appears GOP candidates have a real opportunity in both the First and Third congressional districts.  Electing Capito to the U. S. Senate and two Republicans to the U. S. House of Representatives would be real West Virginia political history. 

Manchin says he will announce his intentions Tuesday morning at 10 AM.

Republicans are on the edge of their seats waiting for word from Capito.

More Details on U. S. Senate Election

Monday, July 19th, 2010

West Virginia Watchdog.org is on the scene at the Capitol and has provided more details on the legislation just passed.

Governor Releases Succession Legislation

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010

Governor Manchin’s office just release the fine print for the special session of the Legislature on succession.  With the interest being shown by West Virginia voters phillipsbillboard decided to post all the background released minutes ago.

July 13, 2010

Governor Releases Legislation for the Upcoming Special Session
The governor will make an U.S. Senate appointment by 5 p.m. Friday 

Contact: Sara Payne Scarbro, 304-558-2000 or sara.e.payne@wv.gov

CHARLESTON, W.Va. – Gov. Joe Manchin today released the special session legislation, which will clarify the state code on the succession process for the vacant senate seat left due to the passing of longtime U.S. Senator, Robert C. Byrd.  

The Governor’s legislation coincides with the West Virginia Attorney General Darrell McGraw’s statement last week, which stated the Seventeenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution gives the governor the authority to call a special primary and special general election to coincide with the regular general election this November. The legislation also includes a provision to require the state to pay for the entire costs of both special elections.

“The governor’s bill is very simple,” Jim Pitrolo, Manchin’s director of legislative affairs and policy, said. “We are taking the Attorney General’s opinion and clarifying state code so there can be no doubt as to how the law should be interpreted.  This bill would merely clarify the state code so that there is no question that we could have a special primary and special general election.”

If the legislation is passed, then the governor can proclaim an election this November to fill the U.S. Senate seat, which would include a special primary election, probably to be held in August or September.

“We are releasing the bill to legislators and the public today for discussion and comment,” the governor said. “Releasing the bill early should give legislators enough time to give it a full and thorough review. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant informs us that absolutely every day counts if we are going to be able to have a special primary election.”

There are various election deadlines, some that are in federal law and cannot be waived, that the state must follow in order to hold a valid special election that includes a primary. The governor and the secretary of state have been meeting with a bipartisan group of county clerks to outline the process for a special primary and special general election.

“If we wait too long, all West Virginians will not be able to select their party nominee at the polls, and we would be forced to utilize a party convention or other form of candidate selection to choose nominees for the election. Because of this, Gov. Manchin will ask the Legislature to consider suspending its rule that a bill must be read on three separate days so that the legislation can go into effect quickly and the state can begin preparing for a special primary,” Pitrolo explained.

Gov. Manchin will call the Legislature into special session to consider the legislation starting noon Thursday, July 15. In addition, The governor is expected to make an appointment, to fill the seat temporarily, by 5 p.m. this Friday.

To review the draft legislation, please see the following link:

/uploads/billdraft.pdf

To review the bill summary, please see the following link:

/uploads/Billsummary001.pdf

To review Attorney General’s opinion, please see the following link:

/uploads/agop001.pdf

McGraw Issues Fast Opinion

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

Attorney General Darrell McGraw in less than a day has responded to Governor Manchin’s request for a legal opinion of the succession process to fill the vacancy left by the passing of Senator Robert C. Byrd.

Secretary of State Natalie Tennant had offered her opinion just after Byrd’s death.  She took the position the voters of West Virginia would have no voice in the matter until 2012.  This was certainly unacceptable to most everyone. 

When it became clear voters s wanted an election this year Tennant quickly sided with them. She asks the state election law be changed to accomplish that objective.  McGraw’s opinion says the Governor can by proclamation set the date for a special election – even this year.

Tennant as the Chief Election Officer of WV will likely find her reluctance to hold an election in 2010 an issue with voters if she seeks re-election is 2012.  It seems Ms. Tennant should have asked the Chief Attorney for the State what he thought before she spoke.

Governor Manchin issued a statement from Boston where he is attending the National Governors Association’s (NGA) Annual meeting this weekend.  Manchin is to become NGA chairman.  The statement is below.

“I appreciate the Attorney General for rendering such a swift reply in accordance to my recent request seeking his opinion on the state’s succession law to fill the vacancy left by the passing of our beloved U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd.

“The Attorney General has determined that, in his opinion, a special election to fill the vacancy may occur before 2012 and may occur in conjunction with the general election this November.

“In light of this opinion, I plan to speak with the state’s legislative leadership immediately to determine how we will further proceed in order to reach a conclusion to this matter.”

Glad I am Not An Incumbent Democrat

Saturday, February 27th, 2010

President Obama made it clear he does not care about the re-election of Democrats as he wrapped up the health care summit.

After warning if there is not enough serious effort in a month’s time “….then I think we’ve got to go ahead and make some decisions,” the president said, “and then that’s what elections are for.”

That is good news for Republicans.

The outlook for Democrats in 2010 is already grim.  Now Obama is going to “hang them out to dry” by forcing a vote in Congress of his unpopular health care reform legislation.  

Does he not hear the people?  They spoke clearly in a USA TODAY/Gallup poll just two days before his Blair House summit.  By a 49% to 42% margin they oppose Congress passing a healthcare bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate. 

The same poll found an even larger 52% to 39% margin of Americans opposed the Democrats in the Senate using reconciliation.  If you watched the summit there is no doubt Obama favors the reconciliation procedure to pass the 2,400 page health care bill.

Am I glad not to be an incumbent member of his party serving in Congress!

Mr. President it’s not just about you.  It’s about the American people.

It’s Not About Your Survival, Mr. President

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

It’s about the survival of those without jobs. 

But that is not where President Obama spent his time since the election returns from the bluest of blue states on Tuesday.

Instead he is pulling together those who helped him win in 2008.  The concern at The White House is not about the economy or those without jobs.  It is about the midterm 2010 election.  But they did create one new job for David Plouffe, who ran Obama’s campaign.  He’s a new “czar” charged to keep his eye on all campaigns.

While centralizing control of the midterm elections, the planners at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue are working to send President Obama around the country to rebuild his relationship with his 2008 voters. 

The Obama political team had better hope that works better than his stimulus plan and his efforts to elect Democrats as Governors in 2009.  The President campaigned in Virginia twice and New Jersey three times.  He was no more effective with a onetime visit to Massachusetts.  Don’t forget the campaign ads, emails, direct mail and calls featuring President Obama.

There is an Op Ed written by David Plouffe in Sunday’s The Washington Post, it does not include new job creating ideas, just more of the same.  Evidently The White House did not hear the voters of Massachusetts.

“It’s about the economy, stupid”.

Will WV Republicans be relevant in 2012?

Saturday, June 20th, 2009

That question will be answered by the preparation, actions and results in the November 2010 election.  West Virginia Republicans face challenges starting with participation in its own organization.  At a recent Martinsburg meeting only 37 out of 133 members of the State Executive Committee were in attendance.  It was reported only 15 county organizations were represented.  Why?  I will leave that answer to others.

 What needs done now?

First, Republican activists need to support the current leadership.  Any disagreement with their approach to managing the party can be resolved with a new State Executive Committee next summer.

Second, these leaders need to develop party building programs and grassroots training.  The focus of these should be to get registered Republicans to the polls.  In addition, offering a menu of support to potential candidates is vital to success in 2010.

Third, every county should conduct an inventory for potential candidates.  Are there municipal officeholders, former public officials or candidates who almost made it in a previous election?  Is there a community leader who could be encouraged to enter public service?  A VIP recruitment effort should follow.

Fourth, tap the knowledge of successful candidates and those who have run campaigns.  Don’t forget former party leaders.  Experience is a wonderful teacher.

Fifth, build a communications network.  In today’s world this does not require major expenditures.

 It seems State Republicans focus significant attention on raising funds.  Maybe it is time to devote the same energy and emphasis to raising people.