Archive for the ‘2010 Midterm Election’ Category

Gallup Finds Times Changing

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

Earlier I wrote about these not being normal times.  Our “moving vacation”, as I like to call it, has ended.  Today I spent catching up on my political newsletters.  I found an item on POLITICO from a Gallup weekly tracking report.  It reports an historic midterm advantage for Republicans.

Only in recent years have West Virginians voted for Republicans when it comes to national races.  If somehow those seeking to enter the United States Congress in November can turn their race into a national one the Gallup outlook may be meaningful here.

 

BIGGEST GOP MIDTERM ADVANTAGE SINCE 1942 — Gallup.com, “GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot: Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting,” by Frank Newport: “Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 … The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. … Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major ‘wave’ election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.”

Money Poll

Saturday, August 21st, 2010

Polls are where you look to see how a candidate is doing.  Inside political observers “follow the money”.   Below is my Saturday morning reading.  You decided how it looks at this point in the mid-term election.

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“RNC has just $5m for final push,” by Jonathan Martin: The RNC “has just over $5 million in the bank for the final stretch of the 2010 mid-term election campaign, according to an unannounced filing with the FEC disclosed Friday night. The report also indicates that the national party headed by embattled chairman Michael Steele is carrying just over $2 million in debt. … It indicated that the committee brought in slightly more than $5.5 million in July – less than half of what the DNC raised – while spending $11 million. The RNC’s money woes have many party leaders and operatives deeply worried about whether the GOP will be able to take full advantage of an otherwise promising election cycle. Of most concern are get-out- the-vote activities that are typically funded by the national committee. … The DNC released its July fundraising numbers earlier this week, reporting that it had just over $10.8 million on hand while also carrying $3.5 million in debt.

The RNC’s struggles come as other Republican committees show signs of momentum. The National Republican Congressional Committee outraised its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $8.5 million to $6.2 million in July. The DCCC, however, has just under $36 million in the bank while the NRCC has about $22 million. The National Republican Senatorial Committee appears to be closing the cash gap on its Democratic counterpart, raising $4.2 million to the Democratic committee’s $4.4 million in July. These committees each have more than $20 million heading into the fall. Meantime, the Republican Governors Association has about $40 million to spend on the fall elections, significantly more than its Democratic counterpart. http://bit.ly/d0WQNj

OUTSIDE MONEY – The dogged KENNETH P. VOGEL reports that American Crossroads “pulled in more than $2 million from last month, and this week spent $454,000 on ads supporting Republican Rob Portman’s Ohio Senate campaign … American Crossroads accepted $1 million each from the trust of former Univision chairman Jerry Perenchio and from an agricultural interest controlled in part by Texas billionaire Harold Simmons. But the FEC reports reveal only half of the effort being waged under the American Crossroads umbrella, which includes the Crossroads PAC and … American Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, or GPS … Together they have raised $17.6 million … Crossroads GPS announced Friday that it had launched more than $2 million worth of so-called issue ads criticizing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Missouri democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan during their campaigns. … The Crossroads groups, part of a vast effort by political and interest groups on the right to offset the overall financial advantage held by Democrats and their allies, have set an ambitious fundraising goal of between $50 and $60 million.” http://bit.ly/c5PD8N

It’s August

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Everyone knows the media searches for an August story.  Well Obama gave it to them.  He just cannot stand to take a vacation or be quite when others are resting and playing in August.  Guess that is why he stirred up the mosque story.  You may want to read more from today’s Washington Post.

Wholesale Change Coming?

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

The primary in four states earlier in the week signaled a big win for Washington outsiders.  A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll does not paint an optimistic picture of voter mood.  It leads one to believe the country is in for an unpredictable midterm election in November. 

West Virginians normally turn to the predictable when electing their representatives to Congress.  A sign state voters are turning unpredictable occurred in the May primary when incumbent Rep. Allan Mollohan was turned out. 

Wonder if the special primary August 28th will provide an insight that West Virginians are in a grim mood and turning grimmer as found in the new poll?

Pennsylvania 12

Friday, May 21st, 2010

The morning after Pennsylvania 12 it was suggested here in Political Tidbits that Republicans needed a new approach.  This was the one race on Tuesday pitting a Republican and Democrat against each other.  The GOP fell short. 

In a postmortem memo prepared by a National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) pollster he joined some pundits who say the high-profile Senate primary brought forth a surge of Democratic voters.  That may be.

This setback may be a blessing.  Expectations have been too high for a GOP takeover of the House in November.  It’s time for the reassessment that appears underway by the NRCC.  Any review should remember what House Speaker Tip O’Neill said, “all politics is local”.

Lessons from the rout in Pennsylvania 12 were addressed in a WSJ “Review & Outlook” commentary.  They addressed a greater concern that being if Republican National Chairman Michael Steele is up to the job.  It’s worth a read.

Michael It’s Time To Go

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

Republican National Chairman Michael Steele is dragging Republicans down and draining its bank account.  He has created controversy since his election more than a year ago.

That’s not bad enough he even wrote a book in which he says Republicans will not in 2010 take over the U. S. House of Representatives.  His actions and those of his cohorts if continued will certainly help make his prediction come true.

Worst still opportunity for Republicans is knocking on the door as we approach the 2010 midterm election. 

Steele is now presiding over a sex club fiasco by someone using Republican National Committee (RNC) money.

When Steele was elected the RNC had $22 million on hand.  In the Federal Election Commission report for the period just ended he reported less than $10 million after raising $96 million during the period.

National news accounts say the Republican National Committee is losing loyal high dollar contributors.  I expect after the sex club episode the small donors will say – no thank you.

With the opportunity President Obama has given Republicans to gain or take control of Congress the members of the Republican National Committee should remove Steele at the first opportunity.

Better yet Michael it’s time to go.

It’s Not About Your Survival, Mr. President

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

It’s about the survival of those without jobs. 

But that is not where President Obama spent his time since the election returns from the bluest of blue states on Tuesday.

Instead he is pulling together those who helped him win in 2008.  The concern at The White House is not about the economy or those without jobs.  It is about the midterm 2010 election.  But they did create one new job for David Plouffe, who ran Obama’s campaign.  He’s a new “czar” charged to keep his eye on all campaigns.

While centralizing control of the midterm elections, the planners at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue are working to send President Obama around the country to rebuild his relationship with his 2008 voters. 

The Obama political team had better hope that works better than his stimulus plan and his efforts to elect Democrats as Governors in 2009.  The President campaigned in Virginia twice and New Jersey three times.  He was no more effective with a onetime visit to Massachusetts.  Don’t forget the campaign ads, emails, direct mail and calls featuring President Obama.

There is an Op Ed written by David Plouffe in Sunday’s The Washington Post, it does not include new job creating ideas, just more of the same.  Evidently The White House did not hear the voters of Massachusetts.

“It’s about the economy, stupid”.