Archive for the ‘WV Senate Race 2010’ Category

Political Tidbits

Thursday, October 7th, 2010

In some ways the current U. S. Senate race resembles 1978…..Senator Jennings Randolph was challenged by two term Governor Arch Moore…..Randolph won by 4,717 votes…..Manchin like Randolph stays in close touch with West Virginia families and communities.

As the mid-term congressional election heats up Mitt Romney’s Free Strong & Strong America PAC has endorsed Raese, McKinley, Capito and Maynard in WV.  Romney as a presidential candidate in 2008 visited WV three times.

Is the Manchin campaign about to hit the fast forward button?

Arch Moore Republicans are quietly remembering and talking about the race John Raese ran against Moore for Governor…..what impact will this have on the close Raese/Manchin contest?

Overlooked in the 2010 noise is the importance of redistricting to be fought out in the 2011 legislative session…..it’s a shame the GOP offered so few candidates…..it may be there that the next congressional representation is decided.

Is the October 22 visit of Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell from nearby Kentucky the beginning of VIP’s planning trips to the Mountain State…..remember how they poured in the last week of the Bush 2000 campaign in WV.

Back to 1978….. the polls and pundits did not paint a bright picture for Senator Randolph…..they overlooked how he was always in touch and at the smallest gatherings…..will Governor Manchin’s personal approach make the difference as it did for Randolph 32 years ago?

Where does Mike Stuart get all his energy and ideas…..he is taking a new and different road as GOP Chair…..maybe a dry run for a personal run for statewide office in 2012.

Where have all the candidates gone…..the closeness of the U. S. Senate race has caused many to put efforts on hold…..but wait until November 3rd…..don’t expect politics to be on hold.

It seems to be official…..Senator Clark Barnes says he is running for Governor…..he has a track record of announcing then having second thoughts…..but the Elkins newspaper reports he has engaged an out of state consulting firm…..we’ll see.

Why would Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wait until 2016…..she just got out worked in Iowa last time around…..Obama gets weaker everyday…..he is not flexible like Bill Clinton…..he stays on message even when the polls confirm his policies are disliked…..and replacing Joe Biden with Hillary just won’t fly…..unless Obama changes…..he may be President but Hillary is still a favorite with the rank & file party types. 

The NRSC independent expenditure ad to assist the Raese campaign was in poor taste…..West Virginians don’t like being depicted as hillbillies…..not a good strategy in a close race…..every vote counts!

A pick up from POLITICO…..’Tanya Rahall, sister of Rep. Nick Rahall, allegedly threatened to make sure the ‘doors on Capitol Hill will be closed’ to a lobbying firm that fired her, according to a civil lawsuit filed against her and another lobbyist,’ POLITICO’s John Bresnahan writes   http://politi.co/a21w4u

Check out Mitt Romney’s new web site www.freestrongamerica.com.

Political Tidbits

Friday, September 24th, 2010

WHAT A WEEK…..John Raese moves ahead in poll put out by a Democratic leaning NC firm…..was this a ploy to motivate the Democrat base…..if so the opposite happened…..the poll lit a fire of enthusiasm among WV Republicans…..they increased nasty “Media Alerts”…..not to be out done…..today GOP Senate Committee purchased $1 million in television buys.

Manchin has moved his campaign to the next level…..rumor has it his successful political team from previous elections has taken charge…..that will motivate Democrats …..this cannot be measured in a poll…..at least not until November 2nd.

Don’t overlook the TV buy includes the Washington, DC media market…..that is how you reach Eastern WV voters…..if you have the money.

After the mention of the “Fire Pelosi” hat Donna Gosney National Committeewoman is wearing to events…..the state GOP headquarters has had dozens of requests.

Not sure when the State Democrats hold their JJ Dinner…..but you can bet it will not be a Joe & John affair.

The Senate campaign feels a lot like the Bush/Gore 2000 race…..watch for national visitors to start arriving…..State Republicans feel an important U. S. Senator is coming to help…..don’t place a bet against Bill Clinton coming to help Manchin.

It has been the enthusiasm of Republicans and the Tea Party…..that made the turnout news in the primary season…..it is beginning to happen here…..many county GOP organizations did not hold a traditional Lincoln Day Dinners in February…..there are a bunch on tap now.

Insiders say Spike Maynard is on his way to Congress…..the only thing standing in the way is turnout…..Rahall’s 17 terms may not serve him well in today’s anti- establishment environment.

Back to the $1 million TV buy…..The Fix, a Washington Post political column, says the NRSC willingness to put its money where its mouth is puts Senate Democrats in an interesting spot.  The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a number of endangered incumbents they need to protect in places like Colorado, Wisconsin, California and Nevada – but also can’t afford to ignore a seat like West Virginia where they have a top-tier candidate in a winnable race.

What a TV battle going on in the First Congressional district…..this could be a close one between McKinley and Oliverio….. in that district the establishment [Mollohan]   was ousted in May.

Bob Byrd played his fiddler to enter Congress…..will Joe Manchin’s weekend motorcycle ride do the same for him?

Ballot Lawsuit Coming?

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

The PHILLIPSBILLBOARD.COM Sunday called attention to the single ballot planned for WV’s November election.  It suggested Republicans should be concerned.  At this point   Governor Manchin and Republican John Raese should be concerned.  They should step forward and insist on a separate ballot.  There has been enough controversy about how to replace Senator Byrd.   The Charleston Daily Mail reported a potential lawsuit is possible

Manchin Raese Race Heats Up

Monday, August 30th, 2010

These are not normal times.  A Rasmussen poll taken after Saturday’s special primary election reveals a close race developing for the U. S. Senate seat of the late Senator Byrd. It appears the big factor is the “drag of Barrack Obama” is having on Governor Manchin.

Manchin’s Challenges

Sunday, August 29th, 2010

After Saturday’s election I have had time to reflect on the forthcoming November election while completing a driving vacation.

You may recall a Rasmussen survey in July where seventy-one percent (71%) of West Virginia voters approved of the job Governor Manchin is doing as governor, while 28% disapproved. 

The same report found that only 32% of the state’s voters approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president after receiving 43% of the state’s votes in the 2008 Presidential Election.  Rasmussen reported in July – note July – that Sixty-seven percent (67%) disapprove.  According to the report this is a higher level of criticism in West Virginia than results found nationally in the Rasmussen Reports.

Therein lays one of the three challenges facing Governor Manchin in the November election. 

The first challenge is apathy among West Virginia voters.  Early numbers says only 12% voted Saturday.  It is likely everyone expected Manchin to be successful.  If that is the case he has a serious problem.  Elections are won on turnout.

Secondly, President Obama will be a drag on Governor Manchin.  Just look at the way West Virginians viewed Barack Obama in July.  Manchin must find a way to disconnect himself from the policies of Obama – even those he previous thought might be of value to our State.

Third, the spending record of John Raese is well known.  You can bet within days candidate Raese will be up with radio and television ads defining Governor Manchin.  Even though Manchin is viewed favorably by voters this can be dangerous.

All one has to do is look at recent primary elections across the country to see these are not normal times. 

Television ads, image building and other modern campaign techniques carry the day in normal times.

The winner in this Senate race will be determined by turnout.

Self-Funded Campaigns

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010

Charleston Daily Mail reporter Ry Rivard has done some interesting research about self-funded campaigns.    

This approach to financing a campaign in the special election to put someone in the Byrd seat may be the only way.  Time is short and money is always hard to come by in West Virginia political races. 

Check out Rivard’s work.

Candidates Must Be More Specific

Saturday, July 31st, 2010

A point well made by The Inter-Mountain (Elkins) in an editorial.

This is a most important and strange political season in the Mountain State.  Campaigns normally expand over a period of year – and more often than not much longer. 

Thus, there is adequate time for citizens to get a feel how candidates are likely to vote in Congress or the Legislature.  In 28 days the special primary will be over and then in 65 days we will have a new United States Senator.

West Virginians are keenly aware that incumbent Members of Congress are returned.  The victor on November 2nd is to serve two years – the likely hood is they will stay in the Senate for as long as desired.

People are not buying slogans this time around.  If I were counseling a candidate it would be state your exact position.  Time is too limited to do otherwise.  That along with the short campaign is the reason “Candidates Must Be More Specific.”

Capito’s Real News

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

U. S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito told Hoppy Kercheaval on MetroNews Talkline she will forgo a race for the U. S. Senate to replace the late Senator Byrd.  In the last few days the signs pointed to this decision. 

However, the real news during the interview was when Capito said “the U. S. Senate is a place I would like to be someday.” 

Byrd’s term, had he lived, would have come up in 2012. 

 If you get a chance listen to her interview it was outstanding.   Capito was sincere, honest and thoughtful.  This is the example she has set representing West Virginia’s second congressional district and how she would conduct herself as a United States Senator.

Republicans Are Ready for Capito

Monday, July 19th, 2010

WV Republicans in the Legislature have scored a victory for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.  The new law provides an opportunity for Capito to run for the Senate seat and for re-election to her House seat if she wants.

Now we know the real hold up in passing the legislation Governor Manchin proposed.

National Review reported Friday Rep. Capito was spending the weekend working on plans for a run if the opportunity presented itself.  The opportunity is here.  She has until Friday to announce her intentions.  Republican sources said today Capito is on the edge of making the race.

It has always been thought there was a close relationship between the Manchin and Moore families.  Capito’s father former Governor Moore represented West Virginia’s first congressional district for years in which the Manchin family resided.  It has been said there would never be a race between Moore Capito and a Manchin. 

That idea was put aside last week when Capito said “that is a myth.”

Should this race materialize it will make political history.  Capito has been a strong voice for West Virginia in Congress and Governor Manchin has brought positive attention to the State.

It appears GOP candidates have a real opportunity in both the First and Third congressional districts.  Electing Capito to the U. S. Senate and two Republicans to the U. S. House of Representatives would be real West Virginia political history. 

Manchin says he will announce his intentions Tuesday morning at 10 AM.

Republicans are on the edge of their seats waiting for word from Capito.

More Details on U. S. Senate Election

Monday, July 19th, 2010

West Virginia Watchdog.org is on the scene at the Capitol and has provided more details on the legislation just passed.